The U.S. year Treasury note is a loan to the U.S. government. Its yield is its rate of return and guides other interest rates. Another term for QE is monitization of the debt because the Federal Reserve is buying back its own Treasury debt in the open market. When the Fed comes into . Treasury bond yields (or rates) are tracked by investors for many reasons. Why is the year Treasury yield so important? The importance of the year Treasury bond yield goes beyond just understanding the return on investment for the security.
When bond prices rise, yields drop.
Correlation of Treasuries With Stocks | Finance - Zacks
This makes money less expensive for borrowers and serves to help a weak economy recover as businesses borrow money to expand their operations. Bond Prices Drop, Stocks Rally A strong economy prompts the stock market to rally as companies start to post good earnings.
When the stock market rallies, investors sell bonds and buy stocks, hoping for price appreciation at a higher percentage return than they are getting on their bonds.
This drives the price of bonds down and moves yields higher. The Case of the QEs In the years after the credit crisis ofthe Federal Reserve began a series of quantitative easings, known as QE1, QE2 and QE3, as part of its open market operations designed to add money to the nation's money supply. This was done to spur an economic recovery and to keep interest rates low. Another term for QE is monitization of the debt because the Federal Reserve is buying back its own Treasury debt in the open market.
When the Fed comes into the bond market buying significant amounts of bonds, the bond market rallies. QE and the Stock Market During the QEs, corporations were able to borrow money inexpensively, which helped them post strong profits, even though the economy was still weak. Treasury yield influences borrowing costs. Interest rate sensitive companies are affected by rising yields.
Correlations exist with some market indices.
The stock market in aggregate recently experienced a rapid decline that some have attributed to the recent increase in interest rates, especially the Year U. Concurrent to the decline of the major stock market averages the Year yield interest rate has quickly increased.
Since October 1st the Year yield has increased from 3. The Year yield was only 2.
A Perspective On The 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield And Stock Market Returns
Examining the chart of the yield history shows that it is increasing rapidly this year. But from the perspective of a small investor why is the Year yield so important and what is its relationship to stock market returns. Treasury Yield History Year U. The Year yield often rises in response to stronger economic activity and growth.
^TNX : Summary for CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T No - Yahoo Finance
But another interpretation is that a rising Year yield points to increasing inflation. The quick increase in a relatively short time period has spooked many investors in the stock market since it may be pointing to rapidly rising inflation that will negatively impact sales and earnings for many companies.
The Year yield influences borrowing costs for home mortgages, auto loans, some credit cards, student loans, and corporate debt. Essentially rising Year yields make borrowing money more expensive for consumers and companies and thus potentially impacting revenue and EPS for businesses.
In addition, expectations of increasing future inflation in turn point to further rising yields. But is inflation actually increasing?
Inflation Inflation has generally been low since the last recession.
- CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T No (^TNX)
- Correlation of Treasuries With Stocks
But more recently it has started to trend up indicating rising prices. Macrotrends Furthermore, the cost of freight for many companies is also increasing due to high demand, shortage of drivers, higher fuel costs, higher labor costs, and increasing capital expenditure costs to purchase trucks. The chart below shows that the Producer Price Index for the transportation and warehousing is rapidly increasing.
Many companies benefited from decreasing costs between mid and mid but since then the index illustrates rapidly increasing costs.
Producer Price Index for Transportation and Warehousing Industries In general the input costs for many manufacturing industries is increasing. The chart below shows the Producer Price Index for manufacturing is rapidly increasing.